Nat Herz’s latest Northern Journal column does a good job summarizing the current parlor game among Alaska Democrats: What office will Mary Peltola pursue in 2026?
Herz details the pressure campaigns from the left, the hopeful remarks from political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt, and the strategic patience Peltola is showing after her 2024 defeat by Congressman Nick Begich. But Herz’s column leaves out some critical context, both on the national ambitions by Democrats for Peltola and the serious hurdles she would face in a Senate or governor’s race.
What Herz doesn’t say is that her possible run for Senate against Dan Sullivan isn’t just idle speculation. Behind the scenes, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is actively recruiting Peltola to challenge Sullivan. National Democrats have been quietly testing the waters in Alaska, commissioning polling to show Peltola a pathway and running a tsunami of negative ads against Sullivan well in advance of any campaign announcement. Schumer is said to be getting quite chummy with Peltola, leading the lamb to the slaughterhouse.
This is a standard playbook for Schumer: Soften up the Republican candidate and lower his favor abilities, try to coax a candidate with “star power,” and use national money to compete in a red state. Alaska is one of the few states where Schumer doesn’t need a Democrat to actually win outright. He just needs to make sure Republicans spend millions defending it.
But Schumer’s pitch ignores one stubborn fact: Dan Sullivan is no pushover. He’s won convincingly twice in a state where Republicans still outnumber Democrats two-to-one, and his cross-party appeal on military and veterans’ issues remains strong. National Democrats may be “salivating,” as Lottsfeldt put it, but local operatives know that unseating Sullivan would be a steep climb, even for Peltola.
Herz also tiptoes around one of Peltola’s key vulnerabilities: Her lack of work ethic is legendary.
Even when she was in Congress, Peltola had a reputation for being checked-out, skipping committee hearings and votes, and limiting her public appearances to friendly venues.
Since her defeat, she’s largely disappeared from the public stage, except for parades and curated social media posts. Her most high-profile event recently was serving as grand marshal of the Anchorage Pride Parade. That may or may not play well with the moderate voters she would need.
It’s the latest example of the political strategy that has worked for Peltola: Heavy reliance on symbolism, low emphasis on retail politics, or tough policy work. That may thrill DC consultants, but Alaskans are already starting to notice.
The truth is that Mary likes parades. She doesn’t like work.
Herz quotes Lottsfeldt floating the idea of Peltola for governor, positioning her as the frontrunner in a wide-open field.
But here’s a reality check: The labor money is now already locked up, with former Sen. Click Bishop — a seasoned, labor-friendly Republican — already in the race. Peltola may have establishment Democratic support, but Bishop will peel off labor votes, especially in Fairbanks and rural hubs where his name ID is strong.
One interesting theory circulating in political circles is that Bishop and Peltola could team up, with Peltola as the gubernatorial candidate and Bishop as lieutenant governor. It would be a bipartisan ticket tailor-made for Alaska’s centrist voters — but it would also risk pleasing no one, alienating conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans alike. It would be a ticket that would attract a lot of Big Labor money.
Alaska has already seen what a unity ticket that is beholden to Big Labor has done: Gov. Bill Walker and Lt. Gov. Byron Mallot tried it in 2014 and eventually flamed out.
Nat Herz paints a picture of a Democratic party eager for Peltola’s decision. What his column glosses over is the messy political reality: National Democrats want her for Senate, local consultants, that group of mercenaries at the state level, want her for governor, and her natural comfort zone seems to be parades and berry picking.
Add in a potential labor split in the governor’s race and the steep odds against unseating Sullivan, and it’s clear her path is far more complicated than Democratic insiders let on with Herz.
The question isn’t just where can she win?” It’s does she have the fire to do the job?