The Alaska Democratic Party and its associated network of activists are busy trying to find the right candidates for every available position for the coming 2026 election cycle, when the entire House, half the Senate, the Governor’s Office, and a US Senate seat will be on the ballot.
Polling and analysis are part of the process. Recent polls suggest they will run Mary Peltola for governor, and they will keep all other Democrats off the ballot, to the extent they can.
Data for Progress, one of the leading pollsters that inform Democrats, puts Peltola in the driver’s seat in the governor’s race. The poll, conducted Feb. 28-March 7, shows that 44% of respondents say they would rank Peltola, while 34% say they would rank Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom.
Data for Progress, like most pollsters, leans left and is used by Democrats primarily. It frequently advocates for climate change agendas and social justice causes like DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion), favored by Democrats.
Political activist Pat Race in Juneau did his own poll. He’s not a professional pollster, but more of an activist with a penchant for data. It’s unclear what his methodology was, but he came up with similar good news for Democrat Peltola.
Race’s “Alaska Governor’s Race 2026 — Let’s not mess this up again” report was heavily responded to by Democrats and nonpartisans (who vote Democrat mainly, according to historical data). Of the 224 respondents, only three were Republicans, and over 25% of respondents were from the Southeast Alaska region, a leftist stronghold.
Race’s mostly Democrat responders ranked these possible gubernatorial candidates. They were offered nearly all liberal choices:
- Mary Peltola: 30.36%
- Val Davidson: 12.50%
- Forrest Dunbar: 11.16%
- Click Bishop: 9.38%
- Bill Wielechowski: 7.59%
- Heidi Drygas: 7.59%
- Cathy Giessel: 3.13%
- Alyse Galvin: 3.13%
- Bryce Edgmon: 3.13%
- Jesse Kiehl: 3.13%
- Pat Race: 2.68%
- Loki Tobin: 2.23%
- Tom Begich: 2.23%Meda DeWitt: 1.79%
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 1.79%Mike Navarre: 1.79%
- Les Gara: 1.79%
- Lisa Murkowski: 1.79%
Then Race categorized what he calls the “Flat Tires,” which he said was “anyone who should just stay home.” The result was (verbatim descriptions):
- Nancy Dahlstrom: 6.25%
- Dunleavy Lackeys & Crum Bros: 5.80%
- Any Begich: 4.46%
- Mary Peltola: 4.02%
- Sarah Palin: 4.02%
- Bill Walker: 3.57%
- Click Bishop: 3.57%
- Tom Begich: 3.57%
- Les Gara: 3.13%
- MAGA Candidates: 3.13%
- Jamie Allard: 2.23%
- Al Gross: 1.79%
- Kelly Tshibaka: 1.79%
- Mark Begich: 1.79%
While admittedly not scientific, the effort by Pat Race along with the recent Data for Progress poll (done for an unknown client) demonstrate a rising level of interest and support for Peltola for governor among the Democrats in Alaska. Peltola, who now works as a political consultant at the law firm of Holland and Hart, would not have to leave her six-figure job in order to run for governor. She has been making appearances across the state at Democrat events in recent weeks, raising her profile.
There’s no indication that the Democrats want to put Peltola up against Congressman Nick Begich, who beat her in 2024.
On the Republican side, the potential field is still developing, with many politically engaged Alaskans evaluating their chances on the ranked-choice ballot that will still be in effect in 2026, along with a potential ballot question that removes that style of voting that has been used in Alaska since 2022.
