By MICHAEL TAVOLIERO
Phil Izon, a lifelong Alaskan, didn’t build the PFD Doomsday Clock as a gimmick. He built it because Alaskans deserved to know the truth—not the sugarcoated headlines, not the legislative spin, but the cold, undeniable reality:
Your dividend wasn’t reduced. It was taken. Stolen. Redirected behind closed doors. Quietly siphoned from the pockets of working families and handed over to the same political machine that promised to protect it.
This wasn’t an honest debate about budgets. It wasn’t shared sacrifice. It was a betrayal — engineered by a small circle of legislators and bureaucrats who put unions, special interests, and Lower 48 donor networks above the very people they were elected to serve.
These weren’t budget cuts — they were backroom raids.
They didn’t ask your permission. They didn’t hold a vote of the people. They didn’t amend the law. They just ignored it.
They gutted a statutory formula that was designed to protect Alaskans—especially the working class and rural families—and they converted it into a slush fund for bureaucrats, nonprofit insiders, and political operatives who answer to dark-money donors, not to you.
Year after year, they diverted billions with a shrug, while you paid the price in higher heating bills, stretched grocery budgets, missed mortgage payments, and kids forced to forgo opportunity. The wealth that was meant to build your family’s future was quietly absorbed into a government system that only grows, never gives back.
This is not governance. This is economic colonization.
And Phil Izon’s PFD Doomsday Clock doesn’t just keep time, it counts every dollar taken and exposes the names, the votes, and the mechanisms that made it possible.
Let’s not pretend this was accidental. It started with Gov. Bill Walker in 2016 and continues to this day. Billions that should’ve gone to Alaskans went instead to government unions, bureaucratic expansions, and a web of Lower 48-funded nonprofits. And behind it? The usual suspects: Hansjörg Wyss, Arabella Advisors, and the 1630 Fund — dark-money power brokers pulling strings from outside our state.
These same groups engineered Ranked Choice Voting, Automatic Voter Registration, and a laundry list of “equity” and “climate” programs run through groups like SalmonState, Alaska Venture Fund, and Alaska Outdoor Alliance. What they actually did was install a new political machine designed to keep the public out and redirect Alaska’s resource wealth to the select few.
And the PFD? It was the first casualty.
Just a few figures from the PFD Doomsday Clock:
- 2018: Alaskans were owed $2,900. They were paid $1,600. Over $800 million stolen.
- 2020: $992 paid. Over $1 billion diverted.
- 2022: Should’ve been $4,200. Got $3,284. $600 million redirected.
- 2023: Lawful amount: $3,900. Paid: $1,312. $1.5 billion reallocated.
- 2024: Should be $4,000. Paid: $1,718. $1.3–1.4 billion stripped away.
If the statutory formula had been followed, dividends would rise above $4,000 annually by 2029 and reach $5,000 by 2035. A family of four will have lost over $180,000 during this 20-year period. That’s not hypothetical — it’s real money that could have gone toward tuition, mortgages, groceries, heating oil, or medical care.
So where did it all go?
Into the state’s political machine. Into unaccountable education bureaucracies. Into pension systems and NGO slush funds. Into the hands of consultants and campaign donors who make a living expanding government, not serving the public.
Alaskans never voted to give away their dividend. But the same network that re-engineered our elections made sure that our voices no longer matter—by installing politicians who do their bidding.
And here’s the part that too many still don’t understand:
Government money doesn’t vanish. It gets reassigned. It gets redistributed. It gets redirected, usually upward.
There’s a dangerous myth, whispered into our politics and baked into our complacency, that when funds go into the hands of the government, they somehow just disappear. That it’s all too complex to follow. That it’s nobody’s fault when money meant for the people evaporates into a black hole of “budgetary necessity.”
But that’s a lie.
Money doesn’t disappear — it moves.
And it moves exactly where someone tells it to.
When the Legislature strips the PFD from your family, it doesn’t evaporate into the ether. It flows—into union pensions. Into multi-million-dollar grants for political nonprofits. Into expanding agencies that never shrink, never reform, and never return a dime of value to the people footing the bill. It funds bloated administrative offices, ESG consultants, DEI contracts, and the revolving door of insiders who profit every time the public loses sight of where the money goes.
The mindset that government spending is just some fuzzy abstraction is how they get away with it.
Because if the people think the money’s just “gone,” there’s no one to hold accountable.
But when you follow the dollars—when you trace them from the hands of the working class into the spreadsheets of political allies, lobbyists, and ideologically driven nonprofits—the betrayal becomes personal. It becomes visible. And it becomes something we can fight.
That’s why the PFD Doomsday Clock matters. Because it shatters the illusion. It draws a straight line—from what you were supposed to receive to where it actually went.
This isn’t accidental.
It’s not mysterious.
It’s engineered.
Every dollar the government takes without transparency or consent is a dollar it assigns a new owner. And spoiler alert: It’s not you.
So the question is no longer whether the money is gone.
The question is: who has it now?
And why are you, the rightful recipient, the one being told to tighten your belt?
This isn’t just about restoring the PFD.
It’s about breaking the mindset that the government’s money is anything other than your money, whether it was taxed, seized, or withheld from the people it was meant to serve.
Theft disguised as budgeting is still theft.
And the Doomsday Clock exists to call it what it is—and to help Alaskans take it back. Every dollar. Every vote. Every piece of the future that belongs to them—not the machine.
Because until every Alaskan understands the scale of what’s been lost—and the forces behind it—we will continue to lose more.
This isn’t about partisan politics.
This is about who owns Alaska’s future—you, or the people who think they’re entitled to rule you.
And that’s why the Doomsday Clock exists:
To make sure the theft is no longer silent.
To make sure the people know.
And to make sure that one day soon, they take it all back.
This is why Phil Izon built the Doomsday Clock—and why Phil created the upcoming film:
“The Permanent Short: Alaska’s Reallocation of $25+ Billion from the Citizens of Alaska to Unions and NGOs” It is scheduled to premiere in October.
In the meantime, you can explore: PFD Doomsday Clock 2.0 (adjusted for inflation and investment loss), the Alaska Budget Analyzer, and more films and tools at: TropicTundra.com
Stay awake. Stay vocal. Stay Alaskan.
Michael Tavoliero writes for Must Read Alaska.
Follow the money…
The low information voters keep electing democrats who are stealing the PFD, and attempting to make Alaska a leftist blue democrat state. Information like this needs be brought to the attention of these sheep.
Last time I checked we had a Republican Governor, a Republican majority senate, and a Republican majority house in Alaska. It’s all the Democrats fault? The low information voter can’t see past the R on the ballot. The wealthy people of Alaska will do everything in their power to make sure everyone pays the exact same tax to be a citizen of Alaska by encouraging the use of the Alaska Permanent Fund to avoid paying income tax. Keep buying the trickle down believes of the GOP!
“……..attempting to make Alaska a leftist blue democrat state………”
Show me a red state with a cash giveaway. A Guaranteed Basic Income. Free cash. Just one, please…….
by “low information”, I’m guessing that really means “low intelligence”, because I simply cannot conceive of anyone with intelligence voting for the democrat thieves, or the rhino/pseudo republicans. It is time to take our state back from the grifters.
A brilliant piece of writing. Reminiscent of Thomas Paine’s freedom, loving dialectics. However, I’m sorry, he neglected to mention the judges that allowed this travesty to occur. Nonetheless, thanks to PHIL IZON and Mr. MICHAEL TAVOLIERO for their brilliance.
Actually, John, it was Senator Bill Wielechowski. He knew exactly how his lawsuit would end. It was a calculated move. He posed as the people’s champion, filed a doomed case, and then blamed the judiciary when it failed. A clever bait-and-switch, hiding behind an Alfred E. Neuman grin: “What, me worry?”, while public trust was quietly sacrificed.
And we continue to elect the same corruption every election cycle!
That’s ok, But I do recommend thanking a legislator as hard as you can when you see one.
All Alaskan politicians who voted to steal our money are criminals. They ought to be arrested and charged accordingly.
Well said Michael!
Until Actual Politicians and Judges on the side of the People are voted in, not crooked ones installed through Rank Choice Voting, Machine rigging, Mandatory Mail in voting, Election results weeks later and other fraudulent means, we will continue to spiral downward as OUR VOTE DOES NOT COUNT.
“……..If the statutory formula had been followed, dividends would rise above $4,000 annually by 2029 and reach $5,000 by 2035………”
And if that kind of giveaway is allowed to grow, you’ll get more and more and more sponges show up to get “theirs”, thus reducing it as much as the Legislature is doing, or more. But, worse, you get more sponges to appropriate other bennies for, which is the source of the exploding budget in the first place, and which “requires” a budget of >$14 billion for a population of just 740,000, which is fewer than the number of people living in Long Beach, CA.
Actually, Reggie, the PFD has been issued every single year since 1982. It’s not a “giveaway”. It’s a lawful return of resource wealth to Alaskans, based on a statutory formula that was designed to ensure every citizen shared directly in the development of our natural resources. That formula worked for over three decades without creating the kind of unsustainable entitlement culture you’re warning about.
Let’s be clear: it’s not the PFD that has caused Alaska’s exploding budget. It’s the unchecked growth of government spending, layers of bureaucracy, union-backed benefit expansions, and the diversion of funds to special interest programs with little public accountability. Suggesting that working Alaskans, many of whom use the PFD to pay for fuel, food, housing, or tuition, are “sponges” for receiving what the law entitles them to is both inaccurate, unfair and condescending.
The real fiscal challenge isn’t the PFD. It’s a political culture that ignores spending discipline, reallocates dividends to fuel government growth, and blames ordinary citizens for the consequences. Let’s not confuse rightful ownership with dependency. Returning the full PFD to Alaskans is a matter of integrity, not indulgence.
Well written, Mr. Tavoliero. And mostly true. However, I stand by my opinion: it’s a “lawful” cash “giveaway”, it attracts sponges, and it will die just like bloated government will, and for the same reasons.
Oh, on this?:
“……..Suggesting that working Alaskans, many of whom use the PFD to pay for fuel, food, housing, or tuition, are “sponges” for receiving what the law entitles them to is both inaccurate, unfair and condescending……..”
The “working Alaskans” aren’t the sponges. I’ve been here since long before the first PFD was distributed, and I well know what it has been spent on by folks. Yes, plenty is spent on essentials, but I had a tenant spend his whole family’s checks in 1982 ($4K) on a pound of marijuana to sell. He smoked it all. Another family, with 10 kids, was inspired to move here from Tennessee in 1980 after hearing of the PFD in a news program down south only to find the Zobel suit prevented Daddy’s $12K payday. They were at church “needing” help.
I suppose you’d call that an acceptable level of graft, and more honorable than the hated official type wasting money on social programs, but I don’t. I’d like to see the PFD die before the state starts taxing my income or purchases. I liked pre-oil Alaska with it’s low population density.
Mr. Tavoliero, thank you for presenting the truth, the truth and the truth…. Sadly, I expect the results will be nothing, nothing and nothing….
Never give up!
Such a shame. Alaska’s Future back in 2020 and 2021 warned about all this. The UAA Insitute for Social and Economic Research, Northrim Bank and others lobbied for a sensible plan that would save the dividend and extend the corpus of the fund for a decade or two. The intellectual amoebas of Alaska, egged on by the (D)ems raised their shrill voices that Alaska’s Future’s plan would steal Alaskan’s PFDs to fill the coffers of the bank and a telecom that supported the effort. Now, look where we are. We’re staring straight into the barrel of the fiscal collapse gun and once the trigger is pulled, the dimwits of Alaska will still be clamoring for their PFD, the (D)ems will be taxing the hell out of us and the economy of Alaska will collapse. I’m not interested in repeating the Alaska Depression of 1986. But it now appears that Alaskan’s are tied to the tracks with the fiscal disaster locomotive barreling down on us with no one to come save us.
I’m an Alaska state worker and the PFD is going to fund my benefit package as well as my 40% pay raise.
It’s good for me, however, just follow the money…that’s where it’s going
40% pay raise?!? Dang, what department/division/office do you work in? Any vacancies?
Thanks for a well written article, Michael. However, all budgets are a 2 sided coin, income and outlays. You are making a great effort to wake up Alaskans before we become California 2.0, but very few authors dare discuss the other side of the coin, income for our oil. Corporate welfare driven by oil company employees in the legislature voting for Alaska to give their employers billions. And we need to get over the fake differences between D and R. I had a discussion with a conservative R candidate for the legislature last election. He said word was out among the Rs that the PFD was a dead issue, don’t bring it up. It doesn’t look promising for Alaska’s fiscal future.
Wow. Where to start? This opinion piece is filled with misinformation and “buzz words” that get people worked up.
1. The budget process doesn’t take place behind closed doors. Its public. Anyone can observe and comment.
2. Government services cost money. The money for the budget go towards maintaining roads, schools, health departments, and managing our natural resources. If PFD earnings are not used for some of the budget, the next likely source of funding is from an income tax. So people get a statutory pfd, just to see it paid back to the State in income taxes. The result is the same, except this way is quicker and keeps the size of gov down.
3. Money doesn’t just disappear. There are strict accounts rules, independent auditors, and accountability in the system. Money is tracked down to the cent.
“……..So people get a statutory pfd, just to see it paid back to the State in income taxes……..”
Yup, but that’s only the folks with taxable income. The tent dwellers don’t pay. They only cost us. So they’ll just cost us more, and right out of our income, which its already being eaten away by the inflation that that government is still telling us doesn’t exist anymore. Hell, an Alaskan burger and fries (after the tip that is soon to be non-reportable income) is now averaging $25……..off of a “food truck”. Imagine another 10% of your income being eaten up so the tent dwellers can continue to buy fentanyl with state assets.
No. Just no………….
Thanks for your rational comment, “me”.
People pitching conspiracy nonsense are a waste of time, and need to be called out.
Excellent piece, Michael.
Thank you.
The only point with which I will take issue is,
“ Government money doesn’t vanish.”
The only money the government has, is the citizens’ money. But, I know what you mean.
The obvious problem is that the legislature thinks the money theirs (almost personally) to throw at the things they want, not necessarily what *we* want.
The very nature of democrats is to spend without regard to bang-for-the-buck (see the school “cell phone” bill). LOL
Sadly, the republicans caucusing with democrats in each chamber are the problem.
Michael is pitching conspiracy theories over substance. Who took your dividends? Easy. After SB-21 was passed and we started giving away our oil, we lost the income we had from previous years under ACES- Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share. Alaskans are subsidizing the theft of our oil with their dividends, so the corporations that enjoyed these billions of dollars worth of subsidies have names like Exxon, or Hilcorp.
This has cost a family of four over $70,000.00
It is the legislature that passes our budgets. It is Alaskans who elect these legislators, or not. If you want your PF to be restored, vote for legislators who don’t support giving away our oil.
Today the corpus of the PF stands a little bit over $83 billion. But because we give away our oil- about $14 billion worth every year at a per capita cost to Alaskans of about $20,000.00 we have been using the PF to subsidize the theft of our oil, and the corpus has not been properly inflation proofed. If it was, the corpus would be around 99 billion. If the AKPF was not the primary funder of our state budget we’d be doing a whole lot better.
There is a law on the books right now that states how the citizens percentage is to be distributed.
If you walk into a store and take 3000 dollars out of the register I believe that you would be prosecuted for the THEFT. That is what the legislature has been doing since Walker was in office
This theft of the citizens money has been rightfully called a tax. What a fair tax rate? This situation is effectively taxing everyone under the age of 14 at a 70% rate. How can anyone consider that a fair tax rate.
If the PFD we’re legally give out we might end up whit a state income tax but the majority of it would be on people with the income to pay it.