While many in the nation are marveling at Republican President Donald Trump’s whirlwind of activity and accomplishments in recent weeks, many Alaskans are equally impressed with their new congressman’s fast and furious start.
Election analyst Nathan Gonzales, publisher of Inside Elections, expects Republican Nick Begich to win reelection in 2026. Gonzales has moved Alaska’s congressional seat from toss up in 2024 to solid red in 2026.
This is the first House ratings of the 2026 cycle for the Inside Elections newsletter, a subsidiary of the Roll Call political publication. See all the rankings here.
Inside Edition rates 176 seats in the US House as going solidly Democrat, and 180 seats going solidly Republican in 2026, with 34 seats in play on the Democrat end and 30 seats in play on the Republican end. Gonzales ranks three Democrat seats as a tossup, and seven Republican seats as a tossup.
Begich is among the 12 seats that are ranked as “likely Republican.”
Even though incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola outspent her Republican challenger by a margin of 20 to 1 in 2024, Begich was able to edge out a victory by fewer than 8,000 votes. It wasn’t until the very end of the campaign season that Inside Elections moved Peltola to its “most endangered” list.
What changed? While Peltola was mostly a no-show in Congress and tied herself to President Joe Biden’s coattails, Begich has taken a very different approach during the early days of his first term.
He’s been appointed to several committees including Natural Resources. Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, Subcommittee on Aviation, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, and the Subcommittee on Energy.
The Republican congressman has been aggressive when it comes to promoting resource development in the state.
He co-sponsored HR 26 – Protecting American Energy Production Act: It would prevent any future president from unilaterally banning fracking.
Begich, along with Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan and Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, has persistently lobbied Trump on the building of the 800-mile LNG pipeline to bring North Slope gas to market. That persistence is clearly beginning to pay off.
Begich voted for a resolution to overturn Biden’s rule that stifled offshore oil and gas development by employing redundant bureaucratic hurdles.
Begich has supported Trump’s efforts to open Alaska up for business again by voting for H.R. 77, the Midnight Rules Relief Act. It supports legislation to repeal more than 1,500 regulations rushed through in the final months of the Biden Administration, many of which disproportionately harm Alaska.
Begich has been proactive in promoting railroad infrastructure to connect Alaska to the Lower 48, unlocking new economic opportunities and strengthening supply chains.
Begich has served twice as Speaker Pro Tempore, an honor for any freshman member of Congress.
National cable news networks like Fox News and Business channels and Newsmax are clambering to feature him in live interviews on their broadcasts.
The freshman has proven himself to be an articulate communicator, unlike his predecessor, Peltola, who often was forced to read off of cards when answering questions. During one debate where she was given the questions in advance, Peltola picked the wrong card and began to answer a question that wasn’t asked. She finally realized her mistake and switched to the correct card.
In contrast, Begich rarely uses notes or a teleprompter. During his speech before the Alaska Legislature last month, he spoke directly from the heart.
Begich’s popularity with Alaskans could also be result of his alignment with Trump who easily carried the state by more than 44,000 votes.
Begich’s support of the Golden Age revolution is crucial for Alaska, considering one third of the state’s federal delegation, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, has mostly taken an adversarial approach to the president’s agenda.
Inside Elections also places Sen. Dan Sullivan in the win category for 2026, and in fact ranks him as a solid win, the highest category:
Sullivan’s first win was in 2014, when he challenged Sen. Mark Begich, the Democrat, for the seat that had been held by Sen. Ted Stevens for decades prior to his loss to Begich. But 2026 will be the first time he has faced the ranked-choice voting scenario that Alaska adopted in 2022.
Trump says he wants to reopen Alaska for business. He has three Alaska allies in Sullivan, Dunleavy, and Begich.
Dan Fagan reports and writes columns for Must Read Alaska. He’s covered Alaska politics for close to 30-years. He currently hosts a morning drive radio talk show on 1020 am 92.5 and 104.5 fm on KVNT. For news tips, email Dan at [email protected]