Bernadette Wilson emerged as far-and-away the frontrunner among Republican gubernatorial candidates in a new poll, the summary of which was released by the Building Alaska PAC, highlighting her early strength in the crowded 2026 race for governor.
The survey, conducted July 24–27 by Cygnal Research tested the standing of eight Republicans and Democrat Mary Peltola. Among likely GOP primary voters, Wilson led with 17% support, followed by Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom at 11%. Peltola, who has signaled interest in the race, registered 9%. No other candidate broke 6%.
The poll found that 41% of voters remain undecided, not unusual at this stage of a race; the primary is a year away. Even so, Wilson’s showing reflects a campaign that has gained traction early in the cycle.
Alaska has not elected a Democrat to the governor’s office since Tony Knowles in 1998, and Republicans have dominated the top of the ticket ever since. The state’s open primary and ranked-choice voting system, introduced in 2020, adds complexity to the contest, but the GOP remains favored to retain the governorship.
Only a short summary of the poll was released, with little granular data to back it up. Building Alaska PAC emphasized name recognition challenges faced by several candidates, including former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum and Attorney General Treg Taylor, who is expected to announce his candidacy within two weeks.
But name ID hurdles are hardly unique to 2026. When Gov. Mike Dunleavy first launched his campaign in 2017, he too was little known outside the Mat-Su Valley, where he served as a state senator. Mary Peltola, who left the Alaska Legislature in 2009, had slipped back into obscurity before she rose to win the congressional seat in 2022.
The Cygnal poll surveyed 500 likely Republican primary voters and reported a margin of error of ±4.37%. Cygnal has polled before in Alaska, notably in the 2024 race for the congressional seat.
With eight Republicans in the field and one Democrat, Wilson’s early lead positions her as a candidate to watch as Alaska moves into the 2026 election season.
But for whom was the poll conducted? It appears to be pushing Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. In the poll summary, it misspells the name of Adam Crum (spelling it “Crumb,”) and shrugs off former Revenue Commissioner Crum and Attorney General Taylor as also-rans, even while saying that voters want a record of leadership.
“Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom stands out with 46% unknown, and the highest favorability at 31%.”
Yet in the question asking who people would vote for, there was a different result:
“When asked who they would support if the election were held today, Wilson led with 17%, Dahlstrom had 11%, and Peltola 9%; no other candidate reached 6%. After exposure to candidate messaging and positions on issues, Dahlstrom’s support grew to 23%, Wilson to 18%, while 30% remained undecided. This suggests that voters are leaning toward a candidate with a strong record of leadership,” the summary stated, signaling preference for the siting lieutenant governor.
Those who took the poll noted that the “push” questions clearly leaned toward messaging for Dahlstrom.
The poll also showed that 75% of respondents are GOP-leaning in a generic Congressional ballot, which explains why Peltola received 9%. President Donald Trump holds a 77% favorability and 82% job approval, while Gov. Mike Dunleavy has 64% favorability and 66% job approval among this cohort.
The Building Alaska PAC has supported Republicans in the past through doing strong opposition messaging against anti-business Democrats, and is likely to focus its efforts in a similar pattern in the coming election cycle.
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What the election of a new governor means to me: We will be bombarded with lies from now until election day, and polling results will be determined by who paid for it.
I firmly agree John & 99% will come from any prior or present Office holders !
Bernadette’s trump (pun intented) card for election will be the boudoir photos she made available of herself online. Let’s be real, folks: hotness helps win elections. Unfortunately.
She is far from “hot.” She looks like a bull dog in high heals. And she’s almost as nice as a pit viper. You should try talking with her sometime, especially about something about which she vehemently disagrees with you. It was her, and her hammer-headed mother who aimed for Dr. Newcomb’s job at HRA. The school belongs to them, you know. Ask them: “Our great grand-uncle Wally Hickel founded this school” and that’s why they get to dictate what happens there. It’s also why Bernie is entitled to the governor’s throne. She’s Alaska royalty. I will be so happy to see her campaign collapse when the hot air runs out!
I’m not excited about Bernadette Wilson, but she doesn’t seem horrible. At this point I am undecided and waiting to see what all options I have at the end. It feels like a new name is entering the race every day.
Of course she did.
Alaska is sick of self-serving politicians. Bernadette is a real person with a vested interest (her family!) in working hard for the people of this state.
Matt Heilala seems to be, as well. I’m interested in hearing more from both of them.
At the time that poll was taken, Shelley Hughes had not been mentioned repeatedly by numerous media outlets as a potential candidate, had not filed, had not issued multiple statements about running for governor, had not been all over social media campaigning, and had not spent a dollar to promote herself for governor, YET she is just points behind Bernadette who had done all of those things. Shelley also outpaced others who had filed and/or who were mentioned excessively in the media about running (Click, Edna, Adam, and Treg). This the REAL news in that poll that is missing from the article. Shelley Hughes is the dark horse in this race. I’d like to see Suzanne report on this.
Take a look at the article on Watchman. Shelley is on the heels of Bernadette without being able to campaign since she is in the Special Session.
Suzanne, the poll mentioned in your piece you don’t link to, or is that the same one mentioned above?
Money coming your way, Bernadette. Wally Hickel would approve your message. You go, young lady.
OK all you Bernadette Wilson fans. Tell me why I should vote for her.
……Bernadette knows how to clean out the trash and haul it away. Works for me
Give specifics RonD. We hear platitudes from the socialists all the time. One liners are no better.
It was a phrase-play because her family is in the waste management business.
I met her for first time yesterday. I was impressed with her intelligence. Plus she is a barrel of a// whip as she demonstrated fighting with the Anchorage assembly during the Covid scam.
Mike Coons: a good looking woman, who owns her own enterprise and speaks like a true conservative, and who can back up her words with action……..will get my vote everytime. You probably prefer some LGBTQ, DEI, woke,
socialist, government attorney type…..who dictates how we are all going to live? There are plenty of them who run for office.
Ms. Wilson will need to win by a large margin to counter RCV and mail in ballots. Here’s hoping and the Trump momentum seems to be still strong so chances are good. Let’s just hope we don’t have other Republican candidates that will dilute the vote.
Let’s certainly hope. The egos and personalities in this crowd almost guarantee the vote will be split.
Yes. However, Bernadette and Shelley both have pledged to drop out if they are not number 1 in the jungle primary. My concern is will Bishop or will he be a willing spoiler to get Tom Begich the win?
Don’t hold your breath.
Well, wearing that dress guarantees she’ll win the Gumby voters.
Time for Clunker Click to GET OUT!!!
Bishop is a friggin joke. He only got elected up near Fairbanks because of his left-wing union ties and his Native wife from the village. I’d like to know if he actually finished high school.
He can drain off votes from ” look for the Union Label!” GOP voters
Whatever happened to the underaged young boy who was recruited at the last minute by Click to race in his riverboat? The boat flipped and the boy was injured. Click never got the parents consent, and never apologized to them or to the boy. They should have sued his butt for $$millions.
What a pathetic individual.
A pretty face and shapely figurer once won not the prize not to distance in the past BUTT it will take smarts & tuned into FACTs of the State of the STATE this time around ! Us Old Folks know better, that we are in a constitutional crisis & that anyone of Us can see through Phonies & Pansies. There is no doubt one smells better than the other notwithstanding their party affiliation. No polls will convince us this time around. Liberty Ed
Come on Ed, get it together. If you voted for Wally Hickel in 1990, you’ll vote for his grand niece in 2026. This IS the better way!
Well said Ed. That pretty face was Palin and what did she do? Not really a damn thing.
Shelley Hughes, whom I fully support has the policy know how. Has gotten legislation passed, one of the biggest was Read by 9. Worked tirelessly to repeal SB 91. Was Majority leader, of the Senate prior to Gary Stevens throwing away the majority.
What Paul and others need to do is to attend the upcoming debates that I am sure will happen between Bernadette and Shelley. Actively listen, ask questions then decide.
Shelley voted FOR SB91 b4 she was against it. She goes whichever way the wind blows. Have watched her for years. She has been VERY nasty to REAL conservatives, especially during covid. Watching the senate on Gavel to Gavel sees a different Shelley from the smiling face slick politician. I do not like Wilson, but I would definitely vote Wilson over Shelley any day.
I don’t disagree with Mr. Coons about Sarah Palin. Bernadette is NOT Sarah Palin.
I do like her delivery and tenacity but… The Chris Tuck connection shows an extreme lack of judgement (self-control) and, who’s to say that guy isn’t in the shadows ala joint custody. Bishop, No. Dahlstrom, No. The other two…. Who in the heck knows? What I do know is that Repubs, Conservatives and Libertarians can’t get into a pissing match and let the left march in because they usually, and eventually, get behind a one candidate. So, if Wilson ends up having the best chance win, I’d probably vote for her. We may have to put up with Tuck as the First Guy in Juneau.
That comment Brad, if true, has solidified my support for Shelley Hughes. Self-restraint is a necessary quality for Governor – and Tuck is the enemy, not our friend.
Folks it’s way too early. We surely don’t need another Dunleavy, it’s been eight years of nothing. Many of the candidates are a Dunleavy copy.
Wrong. Shelley will be better by far.
I’ll vote for her. She has fire, energy and conservative chops. She’s run a private business and understands what fuels Alaska’s economy. If she picks the right people to be on her staff, she’ll have a good launch when sworn in. I’ll also watch the expected meltdown from the poo-flinging leftists and angry “conservative” women who are still waiting to celebrate the year of the woman, when one is elected governor, but not a Republican woman, of course. The blue hair will be flying and anxiety meds will will be gobbled down like candy on halloween evening by this gang. And the spin masters at the Anchorage Daily News and Channel 2 are going to have a field day with catty stories about what she’s wearing, etc.