Bernadette Wilson leads GOP field in early 2026 governor’s poll

August 22, 2025

Screenshot — Bernadette Wilson speaks at a campaign event in August, 2025.

Bernadette Wilson emerged as far-and-away the frontrunner among Republican gubernatorial candidates in a new poll, the summary of which was released by the Building Alaska PAC, highlighting her early strength in the crowded 2026 race for governor.

The survey, conducted July 24–27 by Cygnal Research tested the standing of eight Republicans and Democrat Mary Peltola. Among likely GOP primary voters, Wilson led with 17% support, followed by Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom at 11%. Peltola, who has signaled interest in the race, registered 9%. No other candidate broke 6%.

The poll found that 41% of voters remain undecided, not unusual at this stage of a race; the primary is a year away. Even so, Wilson’s showing reflects a campaign that has gained traction early in the cycle.

Alaska has not elected a Democrat to the governor’s office since Tony Knowles in 1998, and Republicans have dominated the top of the ticket ever since. The state’s open primary and ranked-choice voting system, introduced in 2020, adds complexity to the contest, but the GOP remains favored to retain the governorship.

Only a short summary of the poll was released, with little granular data to back it up. Building Alaska PAC emphasized name recognition challenges faced by several candidates, including former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum and Attorney General Treg Taylor, who is expected to announce his candidacy within two weeks.

But name ID hurdles are hardly unique to 2026. When Gov. Mike Dunleavy first launched his campaign in 2017, he too was little known outside the Mat-Su Valley, where he served as a state senator. Mary Peltola, who left the Alaska Legislature in 2009, had slipped back into obscurity before she rose to win the congressional seat in 2022.

The Cygnal poll surveyed 500 likely Republican primary voters and reported a margin of error of ±4.37%. Cygnal has polled before in Alaska, notably in the 2024 race for the congressional seat.

With eight Republicans in the field and one Democrat, Wilson’s early lead positions her as a candidate to watch as Alaska moves into the 2026 election season.

But for whom was the poll conducted? It appears to be pushing Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. In the poll summary, it misspells the name of Adam Crum (spelling it “Crumb,”) and shrugs off former Revenue Commissioner Crum and Attorney General Taylor as also-rans, even while saying that voters want a record leadership.

“Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom stands out with 46% unknown, and the highest favorability at 31%.”

Yet in the question asking who people would vote for, there was a different result:

“When asked who they would support if the election were held today, Wilson led with 17%, Dahlstrom had 11%, and Peltola 9%; no other candidate reached 6%. After exposure to candidate messaging and positions on issues, Dahlstrom’s support grew to 23%, Wilson to 18%, while 30% remained undecided. This suggests that voters are leaning toward a candidate with a strong record of leadership,” the summary stated, signaling preference for the siting lieutenant governor.

Those who took the poll noted that the “push” questions clearly leaned toward messaging for Dahlstrom.

The poll also showed that 75% of respondents are GOP-leaning in a generic Congressional ballot, which explains why Peltola received 9%. President Donald Trump holds a 77% favorability and 82% job approval, while Gov. Mike Dunleavy has 64% favorability and 66% job approval among this cohort.

The Building Alaska PAC has supported Republicans in the past through doing strong opposition messaging against anti-business Democrats, and is likely to focus its efforts in a similar pattern in the coming election cycle.