By ALEX GIMARC
I received a heads up last week from Craig Medred, announcing a World Bank publication that spoke in glowing terms about the role aquaculture is going to play in feeding a growing worldwide population. It predicts as many as 22 million new jobs by 2050, 25 years from today, and investment opportunities of $1.5 trillion over the same period. Growth is projected somewhere between 60 – 97 million tonnes annual production over those 25 years. Today, aquaculture provides almost 60% of global seafood production.
As with any opportunity, there are competitors. The press release linked above lists shrimp from Ecuador, salmon from Chile, Pangasius (shark catfish) from Vietnam. China and Bangladesh are supplying their own domestic markets with carp and black tiger shrimp.
The immediate question arises: How will Alaska play in this new, apparently highly lucrative global marketplace? What do we bring to the competitive table? What, if anything do we do well? What do we sell?
The first and most important thing to note is that Alaska does not and for the foreseeable future will not participate in any effort to commercially farm finfish for commercial sale, having made it illegal in 1990. This was done as a protectionist effort to protect Alaska commfish from competition. What it actually did was ensure Alaska commfish completely incapable of participating in the growing global marketplace in any meaningful way. Even a Dunleavy attempt to introduce onshore, fish farming for trout (mostly based on the current freshwater stocking program) this legislative session was summarily ignored until it died.
The closest we here in Alaska get to fish farming is hatchery release of a billion or two pink fry into Prince William Soung yearly (ocean ranching), fish which are out competing all other salmon species for food, quickly driving them into oblivion. Environmental concerns about the ongoing destruction wrought by excess pink population in the North Pacific is swatted aside by ADF&G commfish friendly biologists with the same tender loving care that the tobacco companies swatted away lung cancer concerns up until 30 years ago when the Clinton administration turned tobacco into a cash cow for trial lawyers who elected him.
All is not doom and gloom, though there is a little aquaculture going on in Alaska, intentionally limited to seaweed and shellfish. The industry is quite new, starting in 1988 with the goal of $100 million in sales by 2040. The most recent NOAA sales figure from 2019 was $1.4 million. Let’s see, an increase in sales from zero to $1.4 million in a mere 31 years, somehow I think we’re going to miss the $100 million goal by a lot ($98 million). This is hardly serious growth.
Contrast that with the World Bank Report of 20 million new jobs, $1.5 trillion new investment opportunity and 67 – 90 million tonnes of product over the next 25 years worldwide and ask yourself how are we going to play in that new world?
Note that the total value of Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2024 was $304 million, down 24% from 2023, with around 450 million pounds of fish harvested, around 67 cents / pound. Is this the best value we can get for the resource? Or is there another way?
One other way would be to embrace the growing worldwide marketplace for farmed fish. Railing against fish farming and frankenfish, while fun, won’t do anything to make us more competitive.
Sadly, any approach will require action by both the governor and the legislature. Starting with a repeal of the 1990 ban on fish farming in Alaska. The Alaska Legislature can and should be leading this, but their approach to Dunleavy’s proposal for onshore fish farming for trout did not inspire much confidence. It is all too easy to sit back and figure out new ways to raid the Permanent Fund and spend the PFD rather than try to grow the economy.
Still, some things may be changing. The perennial commfish friendly speed bump to progress in Kodiak, Gary Stevens is retiring. An open seat in that part of the state should listen to calls to take advantage of the new opportunities, at least until Election Day 2026.
It is imperative that this state quickly and vigorously embrace fish farming both onshore (recirculating aquaculture systems – RAS) and offshore. There is opportunity out there. Embrace it and we all win.
Continue down our current path, squabbling over ever decreasing returns of valuable salmon species (kings, anyone?), and we will be left with little more than failing businesses and endangered salmon in the streams or in the oceans.
If what we are doing isn’t working, isn’t it time to do something else? Choose wisely.
Alex Gimarc lives in Anchorage since retiring from the military in 1997. His interests include science and technology, environment, energy, economics, military affairs, fishing and disabilities policies. His weekly column “Interesting Items” is a summary of news stories with substantive Alaska-themed topics. He was a small business owner and Information Technology professional.
