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Saturday, November 17, 2018
HomePolitics and PolicyDittman poll shows Dunleavy over Walker

Dittman poll shows Dunleavy over Walker

A Dittman Research poll conducted between Feb. 26 and March 4 of 809 Alaskans asked several questions about the 2018 election for governor, and one question stands out as important bellwether:

Who would you most likely vote for for governor if the election were between Republican Mike Dunleavy and non-affiliated Bill Walker?

Must Read Alaska is not privy to all the public sentiment information gathered by the Dittman poll, but it appears the name recognition challenge Dunleavy had in late 2017 has been overcome to a great extent.

Hawkins

Dunleavy for Alaska has run ads on television during the Super Bowl and Winter Olympics, and has had an active radio presence statewide, along with social media.

The responses to the question – when picking just between Dunleavy and Walker – were:

Mike Dunleavy – 47 percent

Bill Walker – 41 percent

Unsure or someone else – 12 percent

In the past 50 years, Dittman Research has accurately predicted the winners of Alaska gubernatorial and senatorial races 100 percent of the time. In this poll, Dittman is doing research on behalf of the Dunleavy for Alaska independent expenditure group, whose chair is Terre Gales. The group has raised over $500,000 so far to make its case that Mike Dunleavy is the strongest candidate in the field.

A separate poll — by an unknown firm — was conducted over the weekend and asked if respondents were likely to vote for Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mike Dunleavy, or former Gov. Sean Parnell, who the pollster said was unaffiliated (he is registered Republican).

An earlier poll by Morning Consult showed that Walker is the least popular governor in the nation who is facing reelection.

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Written by

Suzanne Downing had careers in business and journalism before serving as the Director of Faith and Community-based Initiatives for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and returning to Alaska to serve as speechwriter for Gov. Sean Parnell. Born on the Oregon coast, she moved to Alaska in 1969.

Latest comments

  • What were the results of the unknown poll, including Gov. Parnell? Parnell would mop the floor with Gov. Taker, just like he did in 2010. I wish he would run again.

    Parnell has consistently had more fans on social media than Walker has had since election night in 2014. How on earth did he win? And now that Walker has destroyed the state, driven jobs out of state, made us unsafe, we need Parnell to un-do Walker’s damage and put his policies back into effect. We were prosperous under him with blue skies ahead. Parnell is the only one with the experience to do it.

    You reported the Bear Paw Straw Poll last summer had Parnell ahead of Begich, Walker and Dunleavy. Can you name this new weekend poll?

      • Can you keep us posted? Do you know in which areas the calls were concentrated?

  • To all readers out there what you have now as (GOV) this man is not good for our
    State, he has ruined are State we need Jobs he is another OBAMA we have a great
    Leader to replace him (Mike Dunleavy) and I will support Mike as our next (GOV)
    for the State of Alaska we have the right guy in the white-house now lets get the right guy for Alaska.we need a leader thank you Larry Zenor.

  • Good morning Alaska its time that we must support a real leader for becoming are
    next (GOVERNOR FOR OUR GREAT STATE OF ALASKA) we have all seen are great
    state falling apart with gov walker, we can not continue going down this path. lets
    get Alaska moving again, we need are LNG along with our (KNIK-ARM-CROSSING)
    and by the way the knik arm crossing would be all Federally funded bill was passed
    Thanks two Don Young millions already spent on studies Walker put a freeze on project back in 2016 Ladies and Gentleman we need this Bridge for are states economy
    the valley starting to show on the GLENN HWY how much this is needed, Mede-vac’s
    have become popular we need to get our State’s economy back on an sustainable path. lets all come together and get our State back with a real leader for (GOVERNOR
    VOTE FOR MIKE DUNLEAVY) thank you larry zenor .

  • The Alaska Natives hardly ever get polled. We’re often too hard to reach individually, and the dominate society discounts us anyway.
    Mallott brought Walker the Native vote, about 15 % of the total votes, and about 30% of votes for Walker/Mallott.
    Were we to get polled, we more than make up for Walker’s 41% … Puts it at about 56% pro Walker/Mallott.
    Us Natives have been the swing vote for many years now. Ask Murkowski and Young.

    • There are 237 Native villages that need to vote in the republican primary as it represents over 300,000 voters. The democrats have bought and continue try and influence the conservative voters in rural Alaska. We have to engage folks with real solutions, infrastructure and opportunities. Michael Sheldon has great ideas to help reduce the cost and build infrastructure to help make Alaska Great Again.

  • “Dittman is doing research on behalf of the Dunleavy for Alaska independent expenditure group, whose chair is Terre Gales.”

    This is a slam dunk for whomever comes out of the Primary Process. There is Big money at play and we know how that typically works out. To have this poll done this early in the process is just another plot to anoint before a vote, even before the State Convention, which was a marketing event where big money was at play.
    We must/should or may/shall consider that by percentage of turnout in the primary process if only 9% show up to vote as in other elections we have seen, the candidate with the most will seem to be the winner. With little to no choices it creates the idea that the vote it is over before the process begins. We must vet our candidates not anoint them..The people should turnout and vote for those who will do what is right for the people of Alaska and its time to here from all of the candidates.
    When you use the paid media and other formats to create the idea optically that you are the winner, then it creates a situation of favoritism. The people see who big government wants and the regular folks need to weigh in during the primary. Through the Republican State process you have limited opportunities to engage the real voters.
    There are differences between the candidates. Lets not focus so much on the 180 people who voted in the state process, but look to the 80-100K who will vote in the primary for change.. Only about 15% of the voters are not able to vote in the Republican primary based on registration..We had a record low turnout the last few years and a lot of people are not aware of how the Primary vote is the most important part of our process in the state. We have to not forget that emphasis on getting rid of those who voted against are rights have to be voted out in the primary. Write in voting is an option, but almost impossible to overcome if the wrong candidate gets in as we have seen in the turncoats and coalition process. I suggest that we chose candidate who are against the caucus process, that limits staff and creates an unfair representation..
    So in May-June-July, before the first mail in vote we must here from all the candidates and you have to follow the money and turnout is key…The money is putting political spins through polls and other media effects to reduce opportunities line folks pockets and make the one in front look like the best option. Time will tell. The Men in Red will continue to open up areas that have been overlooked by past candidates. The bought media is great but actually seeing and comparing the candidates is the best way to judge who will be the best to represent us..